Ocean observations
PENDINGDaily, gap-filled satellite and in situ analysis. Native 0.25° grid sampled at 1° for display. Preliminary values can change. Map anomaly baseline: 1971–2000.
Awaiting source Source & methodology NOAA DATA
PACIFIC OCEAN / CLIMATE MONITOR
An ocean in transition.
Track ocean warmth. Follow El Niño. Understand the coast.
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Ocean temperature through time
Connecting to NOAA ocean data…
Daily observations and monthly forecast anomalies
The current map uses a 1971–2000 anomaly baseline. Switching to a forecast changes to the model’s 1991–2020 baseline; the colors are not a like-for-like warming difference. Loading the published spatial forecast horizon.
Retrieving NOAA model dataModel source ↗
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How warm, and for how long?
Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly
NOAA CFSv2 · 40-member ensemble · monthly departures from 1991–2020
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ObservedModel mean10th–90th percentile model spread
FORECAST MONTH—
The shaded band shows spread within one model, not a calibrated confidence interval. Anomalies are departures from climatology, not degrees of warming since today.
View forecast values and sources
| Period | Model mean | 10th percentile | 90th percentile |
|---|
CFSv2 E3 initialization: pending. Members 1–40; observation member 41 excluded from forecast statistics. Kelvin anomalies equal Celsius anomalies.
Open the original NOAA product03
North America · seasonal impacts
OFFICIAL NOAA CPC OUTLOOK
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Checking source datesProbability of seasonal mean temperature categories
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These issued outlooks combine ENSO with other climate influences. They are not storm or flood predictions. NOAA’s probability polygons cover the United States and Alaska; Canada and Mexico remain visibly unfilled. Regional context below provides additional interpretation. Coastlines and category boundaries are generalized for this overview.
Coverage, categories, and source data
“Normal” means the near-normal category is favored. “Equal chances” means no category is favored; it does not forecast normal conditions. The categories are defined using 1991–2020 seasonal climatology. Boundary detail is reduced for continental viewing; use the original product for precise locations.
04 / FROM OCEAN TO ATMOSPHERE
What it could mean
for the West Coast.
El Niño shifts seasonal odds. It does not determine the weather of an individual storm or place.
Latest temperature & rainfall outlooksIssued outlook · 20 Aug 2026
California
A wetter winter is favored
CPC assigns greater than 50% chances of above-normal precipitation to much of coastal California during December–April, with the broadest coverage in January–March. This describes seasonal totals, not individual storms or flood timing.
This regional summary is dated August 2026. Open the latest NOAA outlook for updated guidance.
NOAA seasonal outlookSeasonal context · local outcomes can differ substantially
Know what you’re looking at
Temperature projections
PENDINGCFSv2 single-model guidance, updated daily. Niño 3.4 spans 5°S–5°N, 170°W–120°W. The Niño 3.4 chart is a regional average. The separate ocean timeline animates gridded forecasts.
Awaiting source Source & methodologyOfficial ENSO outlook
PENDINGNOAA consensus, updated monthly. RONI forecasts and phase probabilities are separate from standard SST anomalies. The viewer does not extend forecasts beyond their published horizon.
Awaiting source Source & methodology